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considering that I'm working through a chapter on agency right now. Being one of your "post-humanist" friends, I'll try to respond. Recently, I've been revisiting the exchange between Geisler and Gunn/Lundberg in RSQ regarding rhetorical agency. As I review it and try to parse the various (mis)understandings of this exchange, I am reminded that the post-humanists and postmodernists (incidentally, G&L worry that these two terms are conflated) too often forget to reiterate an important point: "effect" and "intention" don't disappear "after" humanism. The issue isn't whether or not a rhetor can effect changes. Rather, the issue is whether we think of the rhetor as being completely in control of those changes. So, when you say:
Very few (if any) rhetoricians would disagree, and most would view such causal mechanisms as central to any rhetorical pedagogy. However, if "effect" is reduced to these causal mechanisms, we miss out on a whole slew of important and pressing questions. The complexity of a rhetorical situation forces us to consider the infinite factors in play when a text either has an effect or not. The mechanisms deployed by a rhetor are important parts of the equation, but they are only one set of variables. When presidential rhetoric does or does not hit its mark, we should look at the mechanisms used, the structures that limit the possible range of effects, the infinite audiences that received that message, the infinite affective ties between rhetor and audience, etc., etc.
Maybe this is too simple an answer, but for me it boils down to this: One can effect change, but to reduce agency to the causal mechanisms of a rhetor is to ignore an infinite number of possible factors and to look past important rhetorical questions.